Pengumuman Kebijakan Moneter The Fed Jadi Fokus Utama

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Bank sentral AS (The Fed) akan mengumumkan kebijakan moneter pukul 1.00 WIB (Kamis dini hari), dan akan menjadi fokus utama trader hingga sesi perdagangan berakhir. Mengingat The Fed diperkirakan akan mempertahankan suku bunga < 1%, maka proyeksi perekonomian AS serta laju kenaikan suku bunga akan menjadi penggerak pasar.

Beberapa data ekonomi AS belakangan dirilis mengecewakan termasuk data pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan non-farm payrolls. Sementara untuk laju kenaikan suku bunga, hingga saat ini The Fed masih mengindikasikan kenaikan sebanyak dua kali lagi di tahun ini.

Potensi Pergerakan.

USDJPY
Pasangan mata uang ini berada di level tertinggi enam pekan, selain The Fed data tenaga kerja AS versi ADP dan aktivitas non-manufaktur akan menjadi penggerak. Jika data-data tersebut bagus, serta The Fed optimis terhadap perekonomian AS, USDJPY kemunginan akan melanjutkan penguatan, dan sebaliknya.

AUDUSD
Penurunan harga komoditas masih menjadi penekan AUDUSD, volatilitas juga cukup tinggi di awal perdagangan hampir 30 pip dilihat dari level high – low. Sama dengan USDJPY, data ekonomi AS dan The Fed akan menjadi penggerak utama hari ini.

EURUSD
EURUSD masih kokoh di dekat level lima bulan, dan berpotensi melanjutkan penguatan jika data-data ekonomi dari zona euro termasuk data GDP dirilis lebih baik dari perkiraan. Perhatian selanjutnya tertuju pada data AS dan The Fed.

GBPUSD
Aktivitas manufaktur Inggris yang menunjukkan kenaikan membuat GBPUSD kokoh di level tertinggi 7 bulan. Kekuatan GBPUSD bertahan di level tersebut hari ini akan diuji oleh data aktivitas konstruksi Inggris, dan selanjutnya data ekonomi AS serta pengumuman kebijakan moneter The Fed.

Emas
Emas berakhir mendatar pada perdagangan Selasa, mengindikasikan trader menanti proyeksi laju suku bunga The Fed. Optimisme akan kondisi ekonomi AS dan laju kenaikan suku bunga oleh The Fed membuka peluang penurunan emas hari ini, begitu juga sebaliknya.

Minyak Mentah
Peningkatan produksi di AS, Kanada, dan Libya membuat harga minyak merosot pada hari Selasa. API yang melaporkan penurunan stok di AS membuat minyak memangkas penurunan, dan perhatian hari ini tertuju pada data stok dari EIA.

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Copy Trading, eFX-Plus Major Bank Credit Suisse

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Currency Pair GBP/USD
Long from 1.2934
Target 1.3120
Stop/Loss 1.2759
Floating (pips) +10
Mkt Price (10:12:58 AM) 1.2944

Technical – Medium-Term — [Open]

Rationale

CS notes that with a medium-term base in place and the key 38.2% retracement barrier conclusively removed, the immediate risk is higher to price resistance next at 1.3059, then 1.3121
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[INSIGHTS] EUR: Trading The ECB – Views From Major Banks

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The following are brief expectations for the ECB April meeting statement as compiled from the related research reports of 7 major banks. Overall, they see the ECB on hold with a neutral to a slightly dovish message and sees EUR a buy on dips.
Nomura Research: Nomura expects all the ECB’s key policy parameters to be left unchanged. Nomura thinks the initial EUR reaction to the ECB announcement is likely to be muted again but argues that dips should be a good buy.
SEB Research: SEB expects the ECB to avoid sending a hawkish message and hence considers downside risks to bond and equity markets as limited. On the EUR front, SEB expects a muted reaction projecting a correction lower limited to 1.0850.
BofAML Research: expects the ECB Governing Council to leave the current stance and communication largely unchanged. BofAMl doesn’t see direct FX implications from the ECB meeting this week, but argues that the stage is set to start buying EUR/JPY again. “In this context, we would look to take advantage of any EUR dip if the ECB sounds too dovish this week to buy EUR/JPY.
UniCredit Research: Thursday’s ECB meeting will probably be fairly uneventful: despite solid growth data, we do not expect new policy announcements, nor do we anticipate any material change of rhetoric.
ING Research: it will be difficult for Draghi to materially change growing bullish EUR trend. With speculative EUR/USD positioning largely neutral and material EUR/USD undervaluation in place, the trend seems to be upwards with EUR/USD dips likely to be shallow from here.
LLoyds Research: We expect the ECB to leave its policy rates unchanged and to make no new announcements on its asset purchase programme. It has already announced a reduction in monthly purchases to €60bn from this month.
Danske Research: Danske expects a slightly dovish tone from Mario Draghi at this week’s ECB meeting, noticing that the main message should be that the ECB is on autopilot with its current monetary policy.

INSIGHTS from efx-plus

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eFX-Plus Major Bank UOB

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UOB

Currency Pair EUR/USD
Long from 1.0900
Target 1.1000
Stop/Loss 1.0830
Floating (pips) +8
Mkt Price (8:54:21 AM) 1.0908

Technical – Short-Term — [Open]

Rationale

UOB Research argues that EUR/USD surge that easily took out the Monday’s peak of 1.0935 has shifted the outlook for EUR to bullish. “The target is for a move towards the declining weekly trend-line which is currently just above 1.1000. In order to maintain the impulsive momentum, any pull-back should not move back below 1.0830,” UOB adds
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INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS TRADE INSIGHTS

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MXTT – eFXplus menyediakan peluang trading dari institusi trading besar dunia seperti JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs dan Barclays. Posisi Trading tersaji real time sehingga dapat menjadi acuan trading Anda.

Dapatkan layanan eFXplus dengan membuka Live Account dengan minimal deposit 50 juta. Penawaran dan layanan berlaku hingga 30 Juni 2017.

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eFX-Plus Major Bank Credit Suisse

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Credit Suisse

Currency Pair EUR/JPY
Short from 117.10
Target 115.00
Stop/Loss 117.95
Floating (pips) +8
Mkt Price (10:07:03 AM) 117.02

Technical – Short-Term — [Open]

Rationale

CS notes that EURJPY has found a temporary floor at the 61.8% retracement support at 115.11, and above here can see a move to 116.88, with 117.04/19 now ideally capping to keep the risks lower.
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eFX-Plus Major Bank Citi

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Currency Pair GBP/CHF
Short from 1.2614
Target 1.2450
Stop/Loss 1.2675
Floating (pips) -0
Mkt Price (8:59:08 AM) 1.2614

Macro – TOTW – Short-Term — [Open]

Rationale

CitiFX Research picks short GBP/CHF as its trade of the week on the back of the current higher geopolitical tensions and ahead of the French elections.
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Pivot Point

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Istilah pada analisa teknikal yang menunjukkan titik perbalikan arah harga beserta support dan resistennya. Sebagian besar grafik dan tools analisa bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi titik pivot tersebut. Mulai dari trendline breaks, wedge, triangle patterns hingga kalkulasi paling kompleks seperti Camarilla Equation atau Keltner Channels, semua dipakai untuk menemukan titik pivot yang akurat dan efektif dari suatu pergerakan harga aset.

Pivot points dapat dikalkulasi memakai semua time frame (Monthly, Weekly, Daily dan sebagainya), meskipun time frame yang lazim digunakan adalah Daily charts.

Pivot Point= (High (previous) + Low (previous) + Close (previous))/3,

Resistance 1 (R1) = (2 x Pivot Point) – Low (previous period),

Support 1 (S1) = (2 x Pivot Point) – High (previous period),

Resistance 2 (R2) = (Pivot Point – Support 1) + Resistance 1,

Support 2 (S2) = Pivot Point – (Resistance 1 – Support 1),

Dibawah ini adalah Pivot Point 17 April 2017

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PP17

 

USDJPY Bearish Jangka Pendek

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Masih tingginya permintaan aset safe haven berpeluang mendorog turun pasangan USDJPY pada awal perdagangan pekan ini. Pasangan USDJPY berpotensi melemah lebih lanjut jika gubernur BoJ Haruhiko Kuroda berikan komentar yang dovish terkait kebijakan moneter Bank of Japan.

Secara teknikal, pasangan USDJPY berpotensi melemah lebih lanjut jika harga bergerak di bawah sinyal EMA 8-21-125 di dalam grafik 1 jam.

Level support : 108.00-107.60-107.00
Level resisten : 108.50-108.95-109.50

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eFX-Plus Deutsche Bank

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Deutsche Bank

Currency Pair USD/CAD
Long from 1.3300
Target 1.4000
Stop/Loss 1.3000
Floating (pips) +2
Mkt Price (10:15:04 AM) 1.3302

Macro – Medium-Term — [Open]

Rationale

DB Research promoted this long USD/CAD position from early April, but noted that a less dovish stance from the BoC at its meeting on April 12 could probably see USD/CAD diving towards 1.32.
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