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EUR/USD: Bullish: Diminished odds for further EUR strength.

Despite breaking above the major 1.1000 resistance (high of 1.1023 early yesterday), EUR closed lower and registered a ‘bearish outside bar’. The development came as a surprise and does not bode well for the current bullish view (that started on 26 Apr, spot at 1.0930). A break below 1.0900 would indicate that a short-term top is in place at 1.1023. Until then, another push higher is not ruled out even though the odds for such a move have diminished (1.1020/25 is expected to offer solid resistance from here).

GBP/USD: Neutral: Bullish again if daily closing above 1.3000.

As indicated yesterday, despite the overall positive undertone, GBP has to close above 1.3000 to indicate that it has moved into a bullish phase again. While the odds are not high, this scenario is not ruled out as long as the strong support at 1.2880 can hold for the next 1 to 2 days.

AUD/USD: Bearish: To take partial profit at 0.7335/40.

AUD traded in a muted manner yesterday and there is not much to add. As highlighted, the combination of waning momentum and oversold conditions suggest that any further down-move would likely face difficulty in moving below the major 0.7330 support. Those who are short when the bearish phase started last Thursday should look to book some partial profit ahead of 0.7330 (say near 0.7335/40).

NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.6840/0.6955 range. [No change in view]

NZD closed on a strong note last Friday and the recent downward pressure has eased. This pair has likely moved into a sideway consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways between 0.6840 and 0.6955 for now.

USD/JPY: Neutral: Bullish again if daily closing above 113.50.

We just shifted from a bullish to neutral stance yesterday and there is no change to the view. That said, the sharp overnight swing higher came a surprise and this has shifted the immediate pressure to the upside. From here, a daily closing above 113.50 would indicate that USD has re-entered a bullish phase. While the odds for such a move are not high for now, the upward pressure would increase quickly as long as the short-term support at 112.60 can hold for the next few days.

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Source: UOB Research

 

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​Manfaatkan Peluang Trading Jelang Pilpres Perancis Putaran II. 

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Jelang putaran II Pemilihan Presiden Perancis pada 7 Mei mendatang, EURUSD menguat ke level tertinggi enam bulan setelah hasil jajak pendapat menunjukkan keunggulan Emmanuel Macron terhadap Marine Le Pen.

Melihat pergerakan usai putaran I Pilpres Perancis, EURUSD menguat 200 pip, pasangan EURJPY bahkan naik 370 pip. Tingginya volatilitas tersebut kemungkinan akan terjadi lagi pada hari Senin 8 Mei merespon kemenangan Macron ataupun Le Pen.

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Data Tenaga Kerja AS Berpotensi Tingkatkan Volatilitas Pasar

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american-non-farm-payrolls-650x400-650x400Berdasarkan perangkat FedWatch milik CME Group, pasar melihat probabilitas kenaikan suku bunga Federal Reserve di bulan Juni sebesar 78%, dan data tenaga kerja AS malam ini dapat merubah probabilitas tersebut dan dapat berdampak pada pergerakan pasar mata uang dan komoditas.

Pidato Pimpinan Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, juga berpotensi menggerakkan pasar jika menyinggung masalah kebijakan moneter.

Peluang Pergerakan

USDJPY
Pasangan mata uang ini berpeluang melanjutkan penguatan jika data tenaga kerja AS dirilis lebih baik dari perkiraan. Terlebih hasil polling pemilu Perancis menunjukkan keunggulan Macron vs Le Pen, yang meredakan kecemasan di pasar.

AUDUSD
Pernyataan moneter RBA kembali menegaskan sikap bank sentral Australia tersebut terhadap penguatan kurs aussie akan mempersulit transisi ekonomi. Pernyataan tersebut memberikan tekanan bagi AUDUSD.

EURUSD
Pasangan mata uang ini naik ke level tertinggi enam bulan melihat peluang kemenangan Emmanuel Macron di pemilu Perancis yang sangat besar. EURUSD memiliki potensi melanjutkan penguatan, namun perhatikan kemungkinan penurunan harga akibat aksi profit taking, terlebih jika data ekonomi AS dirilis bagus.

GBPUSD
GBPUSD masih kokoh di dekat level tertinggi 7 bulan, ditopang data-data ekonomi Inggris yang lebih baik dari ekspektasi sepanjang pekan ini. Namun GBPUSD kemungkinan terkoreksi turun jika data ekonomi AS hari ini dirilis lebih baik dari perkiraan.

Emas
Harga emas sangat sensitif terhadap tingkat suku bunga di AS, jika data ekonomi AS bagus dan probabilitas kenaikan suku bunga meningkat, emas berpotensi melanjutkan pelemahan. Begitu juga sebaliknya.

Minyak Mentah
Aksi jual minyak mentah berlanjut, di awal sesi Asia minyak telah merosot sekitar 3%. Aksi jual minyak dimulai setelah menembus level psikologis $47 per barel, dan tidak menutup kemungkinan untuk turun lebih lanjut.

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Pengumuman Kebijakan Moneter The Fed Jadi Fokus Utama

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Bank sentral AS (The Fed) akan mengumumkan kebijakan moneter pukul 1.00 WIB (Kamis dini hari), dan akan menjadi fokus utama trader hingga sesi perdagangan berakhir. Mengingat The Fed diperkirakan akan mempertahankan suku bunga < 1%, maka proyeksi perekonomian AS serta laju kenaikan suku bunga akan menjadi penggerak pasar.

Beberapa data ekonomi AS belakangan dirilis mengecewakan termasuk data pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan non-farm payrolls. Sementara untuk laju kenaikan suku bunga, hingga saat ini The Fed masih mengindikasikan kenaikan sebanyak dua kali lagi di tahun ini.

Potensi Pergerakan.

USDJPY
Pasangan mata uang ini berada di level tertinggi enam pekan, selain The Fed data tenaga kerja AS versi ADP dan aktivitas non-manufaktur akan menjadi penggerak. Jika data-data tersebut bagus, serta The Fed optimis terhadap perekonomian AS, USDJPY kemunginan akan melanjutkan penguatan, dan sebaliknya.

AUDUSD
Penurunan harga komoditas masih menjadi penekan AUDUSD, volatilitas juga cukup tinggi di awal perdagangan hampir 30 pip dilihat dari level high – low. Sama dengan USDJPY, data ekonomi AS dan The Fed akan menjadi penggerak utama hari ini.

EURUSD
EURUSD masih kokoh di dekat level lima bulan, dan berpotensi melanjutkan penguatan jika data-data ekonomi dari zona euro termasuk data GDP dirilis lebih baik dari perkiraan. Perhatian selanjutnya tertuju pada data AS dan The Fed.

GBPUSD
Aktivitas manufaktur Inggris yang menunjukkan kenaikan membuat GBPUSD kokoh di level tertinggi 7 bulan. Kekuatan GBPUSD bertahan di level tersebut hari ini akan diuji oleh data aktivitas konstruksi Inggris, dan selanjutnya data ekonomi AS serta pengumuman kebijakan moneter The Fed.

Emas
Emas berakhir mendatar pada perdagangan Selasa, mengindikasikan trader menanti proyeksi laju suku bunga The Fed. Optimisme akan kondisi ekonomi AS dan laju kenaikan suku bunga oleh The Fed membuka peluang penurunan emas hari ini, begitu juga sebaliknya.

Minyak Mentah
Peningkatan produksi di AS, Kanada, dan Libya membuat harga minyak merosot pada hari Selasa. API yang melaporkan penurunan stok di AS membuat minyak memangkas penurunan, dan perhatian hari ini tertuju pada data stok dari EIA.

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Copy Trading, eFX-Plus Major Bank Credit Suisse

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Currency Pair GBP/USD
Long from 1.2934
Target 1.3120
Stop/Loss 1.2759
Floating (pips) +10
Mkt Price (10:12:58 AM) 1.2944

Technical – Medium-Term — [Open]

Rationale

CS notes that with a medium-term base in place and the key 38.2% retracement barrier conclusively removed, the immediate risk is higher to price resistance next at 1.3059, then 1.3121
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[INSIGHTS] EUR: Trading The ECB – Views From Major Banks

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The following are brief expectations for the ECB April meeting statement as compiled from the related research reports of 7 major banks. Overall, they see the ECB on hold with a neutral to a slightly dovish message and sees EUR a buy on dips.
Nomura Research: Nomura expects all the ECB’s key policy parameters to be left unchanged. Nomura thinks the initial EUR reaction to the ECB announcement is likely to be muted again but argues that dips should be a good buy.
SEB Research: SEB expects the ECB to avoid sending a hawkish message and hence considers downside risks to bond and equity markets as limited. On the EUR front, SEB expects a muted reaction projecting a correction lower limited to 1.0850.
BofAML Research: expects the ECB Governing Council to leave the current stance and communication largely unchanged. BofAMl doesn’t see direct FX implications from the ECB meeting this week, but argues that the stage is set to start buying EUR/JPY again. “In this context, we would look to take advantage of any EUR dip if the ECB sounds too dovish this week to buy EUR/JPY.
UniCredit Research: Thursday’s ECB meeting will probably be fairly uneventful: despite solid growth data, we do not expect new policy announcements, nor do we anticipate any material change of rhetoric.
ING Research: it will be difficult for Draghi to materially change growing bullish EUR trend. With speculative EUR/USD positioning largely neutral and material EUR/USD undervaluation in place, the trend seems to be upwards with EUR/USD dips likely to be shallow from here.
LLoyds Research: We expect the ECB to leave its policy rates unchanged and to make no new announcements on its asset purchase programme. It has already announced a reduction in monthly purchases to €60bn from this month.
Danske Research: Danske expects a slightly dovish tone from Mario Draghi at this week’s ECB meeting, noticing that the main message should be that the ECB is on autopilot with its current monetary policy.

INSIGHTS from efx-plus

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eFX-Plus Major Bank UOB

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UOB

Currency Pair EUR/USD
Long from 1.0900
Target 1.1000
Stop/Loss 1.0830
Floating (pips) +8
Mkt Price (8:54:21 AM) 1.0908

Technical – Short-Term — [Open]

Rationale

UOB Research argues that EUR/USD surge that easily took out the Monday’s peak of 1.0935 has shifted the outlook for EUR to bullish. “The target is for a move towards the declining weekly trend-line which is currently just above 1.1000. In order to maintain the impulsive momentum, any pull-back should not move back below 1.0830,” UOB adds
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