Bulan: April 2017

[INSIGHTS] EUR: Trading The ECB – Views From Major Banks

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The following are brief expectations for the ECB April meeting statement as compiled from the related research reports of 7 major banks. Overall, they see the ECB on hold with a neutral to a slightly dovish message and sees EUR a buy on dips.
Nomura Research: Nomura expects all the ECB’s key policy parameters to be left unchanged. Nomura thinks the initial EUR reaction to the ECB announcement is likely to be muted again but argues that dips should be a good buy.
SEB Research: SEB expects the ECB to avoid sending a hawkish message and hence considers downside risks to bond and equity markets as limited. On the EUR front, SEB expects a muted reaction projecting a correction lower limited to 1.0850.
BofAML Research: expects the ECB Governing Council to leave the current stance and communication largely unchanged. BofAMl doesn’t see direct FX implications from the ECB meeting this week, but argues that the stage is set to start buying EUR/JPY again. “In this context, we would look to take advantage of any EUR dip if the ECB sounds too dovish this week to buy EUR/JPY.
UniCredit Research: Thursday’s ECB meeting will probably be fairly uneventful: despite solid growth data, we do not expect new policy announcements, nor do we anticipate any material change of rhetoric.
ING Research: it will be difficult for Draghi to materially change growing bullish EUR trend. With speculative EUR/USD positioning largely neutral and material EUR/USD undervaluation in place, the trend seems to be upwards with EUR/USD dips likely to be shallow from here.
LLoyds Research: We expect the ECB to leave its policy rates unchanged and to make no new announcements on its asset purchase programme. It has already announced a reduction in monthly purchases to €60bn from this month.
Danske Research: Danske expects a slightly dovish tone from Mario Draghi at this week’s ECB meeting, noticing that the main message should be that the ECB is on autopilot with its current monetary policy.

INSIGHTS from efx-plus

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eFX-Plus Major Bank UOB

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Currency Pair EUR/USD
Long from 1.0900
Target 1.1000
Stop/Loss 1.0830
Floating (pips) +8
Mkt Price (8:54:21 AM) 1.0908

Technical – Short-Term — [Open]


UOB Research argues that EUR/USD surge that easily took out the Monday’s peak of 1.0935 has shifted the outlook for EUR to bullish. “The target is for a move towards the declining weekly trend-line which is currently just above 1.1000. In order to maintain the impulsive momentum, any pull-back should not move back below 1.0830,” UOB adds
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eFX-Plus Major Bank Credit Suisse

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Credit Suisse

Currency Pair EUR/JPY
Short from 117.10
Target 115.00
Stop/Loss 117.95
Floating (pips) +8
Mkt Price (10:07:03 AM) 117.02

Technical – Short-Term — [Open]


CS notes that EURJPY has found a temporary floor at the 61.8% retracement support at 115.11, and above here can see a move to 116.88, with 117.04/19 now ideally capping to keep the risks lower.
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eFX-Plus Major Bank Citi

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Currency Pair GBP/CHF
Short from 1.2614
Target 1.2450
Stop/Loss 1.2675
Floating (pips) -0
Mkt Price (8:59:08 AM) 1.2614

Macro – TOTW – Short-Term — [Open]


CitiFX Research picks short GBP/CHF as its trade of the week on the back of the current higher geopolitical tensions and ahead of the French elections.
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Pivot Point

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Istilah pada analisa teknikal yang menunjukkan titik perbalikan arah harga beserta support dan resistennya. Sebagian besar grafik dan tools analisa bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi titik pivot tersebut. Mulai dari trendline breaks, wedge, triangle patterns hingga kalkulasi paling kompleks seperti Camarilla Equation atau Keltner Channels, semua dipakai untuk menemukan titik pivot yang akurat dan efektif dari suatu pergerakan harga aset.

Pivot points dapat dikalkulasi memakai semua time frame (Monthly, Weekly, Daily dan sebagainya), meskipun time frame yang lazim digunakan adalah Daily charts.

Pivot Point= (High (previous) + Low (previous) + Close (previous))/3,

Resistance 1 (R1) = (2 x Pivot Point) – Low (previous period),

Support 1 (S1) = (2 x Pivot Point) – High (previous period),

Resistance 2 (R2) = (Pivot Point – Support 1) + Resistance 1,

Support 2 (S2) = Pivot Point – (Resistance 1 – Support 1),

Dibawah ini adalah Pivot Point 17 April 2017

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USDJPY Bearish Jangka Pendek

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Masih tingginya permintaan aset safe haven berpeluang mendorog turun pasangan USDJPY pada awal perdagangan pekan ini. Pasangan USDJPY berpotensi melemah lebih lanjut jika gubernur BoJ Haruhiko Kuroda berikan komentar yang dovish terkait kebijakan moneter Bank of Japan.

Secara teknikal, pasangan USDJPY berpotensi melemah lebih lanjut jika harga bergerak di bawah sinyal EMA 8-21-125 di dalam grafik 1 jam.

Level support : 108.00-107.60-107.00
Level resisten : 108.50-108.95-109.50

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